Model Portfolios September 15, 2006 :
Growth
Portfolio:
The
Growth portfolio has seen a few changes over the past month due
mainly to the decline in energy prices. The price of crude oil and
natural gas have come under severe pressure over the past few weeks
as the uncertainty in the Middle East has declined reducing concerns
regarding potential supply disruptions from the region. Concern
regarding the potential for a major tropical storm which could cause
damage in the oil production areas of the Gulf of Mexico has been
reduced as the season has so far been tame compared to last year.
The
price of Natural gas hit a 2 year low this week and closed at only
$4.98 per Million BTU well down from the highs last fall of $15.00.
Oil closed down again this week at $63.33 per barrel having traded
below $63.00 for part of the day. Oil is now at the lowest level
since last February.
The
price of gold has also declined as now trading at $583 per ounce
the share prices have not followed the bullion price down. There
has been a flurry of takeovers and mergers in the past couple of
weeks and this has helped to keep the share prices from falling.
Sales:
200
Inco @ $90.00. The Brazilian firm CVRD is in the process of completing
their take over of Inco and the shares were sold into the market
in order to reduce the possibility of potential problems causing
the takeover to either fail or be delayed.
200
Suncor @ $80.00, on stop loss order.
200
Shell Canada @ $35.00 on stop loss order.
100
Canadian Natural Resources @ $55.00 on stop loss order.
Purchases:
500
Denison Mines @ $16.80, the uranium market remains robust and there
continues to be a supply/demand imbalance with current production
supplying only 60% of current demand. The shortfall is being made
up with surplus military product. There will be upward pressure
on the price of uranium and Denison is in an excellent position
to capitalize on the price increase.
Denison
has just been targeted for a take over with two firms International
Uranium Corp and SXR Uranium One Inc. vying for control. There is
a very high possibility that a bidding war will develop and push
the price of Denison much higher (lets hope).

Growth
portfolio as at September 15, 2006:
Company |
Symbol |
Shares |
Cost
$ |
Market
$ |
Total
$ |
Stop |
Aur |
AUR |
400 |
8.45 |
19.20 |
7,680 |
15.00 |
Cameco |
CCO |
200 |
28.00 |
43.51 |
8,702 |
35.00 |
TD
Bank |
TD |
200 |
45.94 |
59.24 |
11,848 |
50.00 |
Sunlife |
SLF |
200 |
36.42 |
44.41 |
8,882 |
40.00 |
CN
Rail |
CNR |
200 |
36.13 |
45.50 |
9,100 |
42.00 |
Finning |
FTT |
300 |
35.25 |
38.65 |
11,595 |
32.50 |
Kinross |
K |
700 |
11.95 |
14.04 |
9,828 |
12.00 |
Denison |
DEN |
500 |
16.80 |
16.80 |
8,400 |
14.00 |
Cash |
|
|
|
|
70,180 |
|
Cost: |
99,027 |
|
|
Total: |
145,625 |
|
Original
cost is as at April 15, 2004 .
Global
Portfolio as at September 15, 2006 :
The
Global portfolio attempts to follow the Asset Allocation model regarding
equity allocation globally. The portfolio has been holding approximately
30% cash over the past few months in anticipation of a sell off
in the global markets.
That
has started to happen and the cash position has helped to reduce
the over all volatility in the past few months. The markets appear
to be headed lower over the short term and the portfolio will continue
to hold this higher than normal cash position.
Over
the next month or two there will be opportunities to utilize the
cash. The area of focus will be in Asia as that region appears to
offer the most potential for growth.
Global
Portfolio as at September 15, 2006 :
Canadian
Equity |
Symbol |
Units |
Cost |
Market |
Total |
S&P/TSX
60 |
XIU |
200 |
48.80 |
66.46 |
13,292 |
Financials |
XFN |
300 |
36.67 |
49.12 |
14,736 |
Energy |
XEG |
200 |
43.38 |
76.93 |
15,386 |
Gold |
XGD |
100 |
54.18 |
68.40 |
6,840 |
Latin
Am.
Equity |
|
|
|
|
|
Lat
Am 40 |
ILF |
100 |
143.99 |
140.07 |
15,669 |
Asian
Equity
ishares |
|
|
|
|
|
Japan |
EWJ |
600 |
10.94 |
13.43 |
9,014 |
Pacific |
EPP |
100 |
77.23 |
110.42 |
12,352 |
Hong
Kong |
EWH |
600 |
11.46 |
14.34 |
9,625 |
Cash |
|
|
|
|
31,437 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: |
|
|
98,390 |
|
109,879 |
Canadian
Dollar Exchange rate: 1.1187
Investment
Profiles:
Aur
Resources (AUR):
A
Canadian copper producer and small enough to be a potential take
over candidate. The company operates a number of mines in Quebec
and Chile . The company is developing a number of properties in
North and South America as well.
Target
price: has been increased to $22.00 due to the ongoing strength
in copper and the stop loss is set at $14.00.
Cameco
(CCO):
Cameco
is the worlds lowest cost producer of uranium and supplies approximately
20% of the world's production. The company has total proven and
probable reserves of 550 million pounds of uranium. The company
operates three mines in Northern Saskatchewan , McArthur River ,
Key Lake , and Rabbit Lake along with two properties in the US ,
Smith Ranch-Highland in Wyoming and Crow Butte in Nebraska . Cameco
also owns 31.6% of Bruce Power which is a joint venture with TransCanada
Corp and BPC Generation Infrastructure Trust. Bruce Power has leased
eight Candu reactors located in Ontario , six of which are operational,
the six reactors can produce 4,700megawatts of electricity enough
to supply approximately 20% of the provinces power requirements.
Cameco produced 20.56 million pounds of uranium in 2004, 2 million
pounds more than in 2003, generating revenue of $1.04 bill ion and
earnings of $278.8 million or $1.56 per diluted share. The company
recently split the shares 3:1 and increased the annual dividend
by 20% to a post split $0.24 per share.
Target
price: $53.00
TD
Bank (TD):
TD
is one of the five largest banks in Canada offering a wide array
of financial services. The retail market is serviced by over 1300
TD Canada Trust locations, TD Securities offers investment banking.
The fundamentals in the financial services industry have improved
over the last year with loan loss provisions declining, the equity
market activity improving and a very active housing market creating
an attractive mortgage market. As the economy continues to improve
so should the profitability at the TD. The chart shows a strong
uptrend in place going back to the fall of 2003.
Target
Price: $65.00
Sunlife
Financial (SLF):
SLF
is an international financial services company offering life, health,
pension and retirement services. SLF also owns MFS one of the top
ten mutual fund companies in the US , along with a 34% ownership
in CI Fund Management Inc. gives SLF a diversified position in the
wealth management business in North America . The fundamentals in
both of these businesses has been improving the stock trades with
a P/E of 17.5 and the chart shows an uptrend in place which started
in the summer of 2003 and the shares going to new highs into uncharted
territory.
Target
Price: $50.00
CN
Rail (CNR):
Canadian
National Railway Company is a leading North American railway, after
acquiring Illinois Central in 1999 and Great Lakes Transportation
in 2004 along with the partnership agreement with BC Rail in 2004.
The company has 19,560 miles of track in Canada and the US operating
from coast to coast and down to the Gulf of Mexico serving the ports
of Vancouver , Prince Rupert , Montreal , Halifax , New Orleans
and Mobile Alabama .
CN
transports a variety of products including petroleum, chemicals,
grain, fertilizers, coal, metals, forest products and autos. The
company generates revenue from the US (56%), Canada (25%) and international
traffic (19%). CN has seen a substantial increase in fourth quarter
revenue from the commodity sector metal (37%), forest products (22%),
coal (20%) and chemicals (9%). CN recently announced a 28% increase
in the dividend per share from $0.78 to $1.00 annually the shares
now yield 1.37%.
Target
Price: $63.00
Finning
(FTT):
Based
in Vancouver is a distributor for Caterpillar equipment in Western
Canada , the UK and South America . Finning supplies equipment to
the resource and construction industry both of which have been much
stronger over the past year.
The
UK operation recently granted the distribution rights for Perkins
Engines which should add $50 million annually in revenue. Target
Price: $45.00
Kinross
Gold (K):
A
Canadian gold producer with 11 mines operating in The US, Canada
, South America , Africa and Russia which produce 1.6 million ounces
of gold annually. The company is a now one of the ten largest gold
producers in the world. Kinross is a low cost producer of gold with
a cash cost of production of only $265.00 an ounce. The company
is well managed and well positioned to take advantage of the current
high price of gold. One year target price: $16.00 initial stop loss
$12.00.
Denison
Mines (DEN):
A
Canadian uranium producer with mines in Saskatchewan , McClean lake
and is the world's sixth largest uranium producer. Also holds interests
in exploration properties in Mongolia and Australia . One year target
$22.00 initial stop loss $14.00.
ETF
Profiles:
XIU:
S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund holds the 60 largest companies by market
capitalization in Canada , all of the main sectors of the economy
are represented. The unit pays an annual Dividend of $0.87 per unit,
current yield is 1.65%. The units are very liquid there are currently
105 million outstanding.
XFN:
Financials Index Fund holds 26 Canadian financial companies encompassing
Banking, Life Insurance, and Investment Management. The unit pays
an annual Dividend of $0.80 per unit, current yield is 2.03%.
XEG:
Energy Index Fund holds 28 Canadian energy companies involved in
the production, service and integrated sectors of the OIL& Gas
sector. The unit pays a small annual dividend of $0.50 per unit,
current yield is 0.89%.
XGD:
Gold Index Fund holds 19 Canadian companies involved in Gold production.
The unit is dominated by two companies Barrick Gold and Placer Dome
which combined account for 48% of the units' value.
ILF:
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund holds a diversified portfolio
of 40 large companies for the four largest economies in the region,
Mexico , Brazil , Argentina and Chile .
EWJ:
MSCI Japan Index Fund holds a corresponding position to the Index.
Top ten holdings, Toyota , Canon, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi
Financial, Honda Motor, Mizuho Financial, Sony, NTT DoCoMo, Matsushita
Electric and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.
EPP:
MSCI Pacific Index Fund ex: Japan. Holds companies from Australia
, Hong Kong , New Zealand and Singapore . Top ten holdings, BHP
Billiton, National Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia,
Australia & New Zealand Banking Corp, Westpac Banking Corp,
Hutchison Whampoa, Westfield Group, Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties
and Woolworths. |