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Model Portfolios September 15, 2006 :

Growth Portfolio:

 

The Growth portfolio has seen a few changes over the past month due mainly to the decline in energy prices. The price of crude oil and natural gas have come under severe pressure over the past few weeks as the uncertainty in the Middle East has declined reducing concerns regarding potential supply disruptions from the region. Concern regarding the potential for a major tropical storm which could cause damage in the oil production areas of the Gulf of Mexico has been reduced as the season has so far been tame compared to last year.

 

The price of Natural gas hit a 2 year low this week and closed at only $4.98 per Million BTU well down from the highs last fall of $15.00. Oil closed down again this week at $63.33 per barrel having traded below $63.00 for part of the day. Oil is now at the lowest level since last February.

 

The price of gold has also declined as now trading at $583 per ounce the share prices have not followed the bullion price down. There has been a flurry of takeovers and mergers in the past couple of weeks and this has helped to keep the share prices from falling.

 

Sales:

 

200 Inco @ $90.00. The Brazilian firm CVRD is in the process of completing their take over of Inco and the shares were sold into the market in order to reduce the possibility of potential problems causing the takeover to either fail or be delayed.

 

200 Suncor @ $80.00, on stop loss order.

 

200 Shell Canada @ $35.00 on stop loss order.

 

100 Canadian Natural Resources @ $55.00 on stop loss order.

 

Purchases:

 

500 Denison Mines @ $16.80, the uranium market remains robust and there continues to be a supply/demand imbalance with current production supplying only 60% of current demand. The shortfall is being made up with surplus military product. There will be upward pressure on the price of uranium and Denison is in an excellent position to capitalize on the price increase.

Denison has just been targeted for a take over with two firms International Uranium Corp and SXR Uranium One Inc. vying for control. There is a very high possibility that a bidding war will develop and push the price of Denison much higher (lets hope).

 

Growth portfolio as at September 15, 2006:

 

 

Company

 

Symbol

 

Shares

 

Cost $

 

Market $

 

Total $

 

Stop

Aur

AUR

400

8.45

19.20

7,680

15.00

Cameco

CCO

200

28.00

43.51

8,702

35.00

TD Bank

TD

200

45.94

59.24

11,848

50.00

Sunlife

SLF

200

36.42

44.41

8,882

40.00

CN Rail

CNR

200

36.13

45.50

9,100

42.00

Finning

FTT

300

35.25

38.65

11,595

32.50

Kinross

K

700

11.95

14.04

9,828

12.00

Denison

DEN

500

16.80

16.80

8,400

14.00

Cash

 

 

 

 

70,180

 

Cost:

99,027

 

 

Total:

145,625

 

 Original cost is as at April 15, 2004 .

  

Global Portfolio as at September 15, 2006 :

 

The Global portfolio attempts to follow the Asset Allocation model regarding equity allocation globally. The portfolio has been holding approximately 30% cash over the past few months in anticipation of a sell off in the global markets.

 

That has started to happen and the cash position has helped to reduce the over all volatility in the past few months. The markets appear to be headed lower over the short term and the portfolio will continue to hold this higher than normal cash position.

 

Over the next month or two there will be opportunities to utilize the cash. The area of focus will be in Asia as that region appears to offer the most potential for growth.

 

Global Portfolio as at September 15, 2006 :

 

Canadian

Equity

 

Symbol

 

Units

 

Cost

 

Market

 

Total

S&P/TSX 60

XIU

200

48.80

66.46

13,292

Financials

XFN

300

36.67

49.12

14,736

Energy

XEG

200

43.38

76.93

15,386

Gold

XGD

100

54.18

68.40

6,840

Latin Am.

Equity

 

 

 

 

 

Lat Am 40

ILF

100

143.99

140.07

15,669

Asian

Equity ishares

 

 

 

 

 

Japan

EWJ

600

10.94

13.43

9,014

Pacific

EPP

100

77.23

110.42

12,352

Hong Kong

EWH

600

11.46

14.34

9,625

Cash

 

 

 

 

31,437

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total:

 

 

98,390

 

109,879

 

Canadian Dollar Exchange rate: 1.1187

Investment Profiles:

 

Aur Resources (AUR):

A Canadian copper producer and small enough to be a potential take over candidate. The company operates a number of mines in Quebec and Chile . The company is developing a number of properties in North and South America as well.

Target price: has been increased to $22.00 due to the ongoing strength in copper and the stop loss is set at $14.00.

 

Cameco (CCO):

Cameco is the worlds lowest cost producer of uranium and supplies approximately 20% of the world's production. The company has total proven and probable reserves of 550 million pounds of uranium. The company operates three mines in Northern Saskatchewan , McArthur River , Key Lake , and Rabbit Lake along with two properties in the US , Smith Ranch-Highland in Wyoming and Crow Butte in Nebraska . Cameco also owns 31.6% of Bruce Power which is a joint venture with TransCanada Corp and BPC Generation Infrastructure Trust. Bruce Power has leased eight Candu reactors located in Ontario , six of which are operational, the six reactors can produce 4,700megawatts of electricity enough to supply approximately 20% of the provinces power requirements. Cameco produced 20.56 million pounds of uranium in 2004, 2 million pounds more than in 2003, generating revenue of $1.04 bill ion and earnings of $278.8 million or $1.56 per diluted share. The company recently split the shares 3:1 and increased the annual dividend by 20% to a post split $0.24 per share.

Target price: $53.00

 

TD Bank (TD):

TD is one of the five largest banks in Canada offering a wide array of financial services. The retail market is serviced by over 1300 TD Canada Trust locations, TD Securities offers investment banking. The fundamentals in the financial services industry have improved over the last year with loan loss provisions declining, the equity market activity improving and a very active housing market creating an attractive mortgage market. As the economy continues to improve so should the profitability at the TD. The chart shows a strong uptrend in place going back to the fall of 2003.

Target Price: $65.00

 

Sunlife Financial (SLF):

SLF is an international financial services company offering life, health, pension and retirement services. SLF also owns MFS one of the top ten mutual fund companies in the US , along with a 34% ownership in CI Fund Management Inc. gives SLF a diversified position in the wealth management business in North America . The fundamentals in both of these businesses has been improving the stock trades with a P/E of 17.5 and the chart shows an uptrend in place which started in the summer of 2003 and the shares going to new highs into uncharted territory.

Target Price: $50.00

 

CN Rail (CNR):

Canadian National Railway Company is a leading North American railway, after acquiring Illinois Central in 1999 and Great Lakes Transportation in 2004 along with the partnership agreement with BC Rail in 2004. The company has 19,560 miles of track in Canada and the US operating from coast to coast and down to the Gulf of Mexico serving the ports of Vancouver , Prince Rupert , Montreal , Halifax , New Orleans and Mobile Alabama .

CN transports a variety of products including petroleum, chemicals, grain, fertilizers, coal, metals, forest products and autos. The company generates revenue from the US (56%), Canada (25%) and international traffic (19%). CN has seen a substantial increase in fourth quarter revenue from the commodity sector metal (37%), forest products (22%), coal (20%) and chemicals (9%). CN recently announced a 28% increase in the dividend per share from $0.78 to $1.00 annually the shares now yield 1.37%.

Target Price: $63.00

 

Finning (FTT):

Based in Vancouver is a distributor for Caterpillar equipment in Western Canada , the UK and South America . Finning supplies equipment to the resource and construction industry both of which have been much stronger over the past year.

The UK operation recently granted the distribution rights for Perkins Engines which should add $50 million annually in revenue. Target Price: $45.00

 

Kinross Gold (K):

A Canadian gold producer with 11 mines operating in The US, Canada , South America , Africa and Russia which produce 1.6 million ounces of gold annually. The company is a now one of the ten largest gold producers in the world. Kinross is a low cost producer of gold with a cash cost of production of only $265.00 an ounce. The company is well managed and well positioned to take advantage of the current high price of gold. One year target price: $16.00 initial stop loss $12.00.

 

Denison Mines (DEN):

A Canadian uranium producer with mines in Saskatchewan , McClean lake and is the world's sixth largest uranium producer. Also holds interests in exploration properties in Mongolia and Australia . One year target $22.00 initial stop loss $14.00.

 

 

ETF Profiles:

 

XIU: S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund holds the 60 largest companies by market capitalization in Canada , all of the main sectors of the economy are represented. The unit pays an annual Dividend of $0.87 per unit, current yield is 1.65%. The units are very liquid there are currently 105 million outstanding.

 

XFN: Financials Index Fund holds 26 Canadian financial companies encompassing Banking, Life Insurance, and Investment Management. The unit pays an annual Dividend of $0.80 per unit, current yield is 2.03%.

 

XEG: Energy Index Fund holds 28 Canadian energy companies involved in the production, service and integrated sectors of the OIL& Gas sector. The unit pays a small annual dividend of $0.50 per unit, current yield is 0.89%.

 

XGD: Gold Index Fund holds 19 Canadian companies involved in Gold production. The unit is dominated by two companies Barrick Gold and Placer Dome which combined account for 48% of the units' value.

ILF: S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund holds a diversified portfolio of 40 large companies for the four largest economies in the region, Mexico , Brazil , Argentina and Chile .

 

EWJ: MSCI Japan Index Fund holds a corresponding position to the Index. Top ten holdings, Toyota , Canon, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Mitsubishi Financial, Honda Motor, Mizuho Financial, Sony, NTT DoCoMo, Matsushita Electric and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.

 

EPP: MSCI Pacific Index Fund ex: Japan. Holds companies from Australia , Hong Kong , New Zealand and Singapore . Top ten holdings, BHP Billiton, National Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia & New Zealand Banking Corp, Westpac Banking Corp, Hutchison Whampoa, Westfield Group, Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties and Woolworths.

 

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